Doebeli and Isplolatov’s research suggests that for the most part, evolution is too chaotic to be predicted with any great accuracy. If they are right, then the successes that scientists like Losos and Lenski have had in finding predictable evolution are the exceptions that prove the rule. The future of evolution, for the most part, is as fundamentally unknowable as the future of the weather.

This conclusion may seem strange coming from Doebeli. After all, he has conducted experiments on E. coli that have shown just how predictable evolution can be. But he sees no contradiction. “It’s just a matter of time scales,” he said. “Over short periods of time, it is predictable, if you have enough information. But you can’t predict it over long periods of time.”

Even over short periods of time, accurate forecasts can save lives. Meteorologists can make fairly reliable predictions about treacherous weather a few days in advance. That can be enough time to evacuate a town ahead of a hurricane or lay in supplies for a blizzard.

Richard Lenski thinks that recent studies raise the question of whether evolutionary forecasting could also provide practical benefits. “I think the answer is definitely yes,” he said.

http://www.simonsfoundation.org/quanta/20140717-the-new-science-of-evolutionary-forecasting/